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Prediction for CME (2023-11-27T06:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-11-27T06:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27889/-1
CME Note: Wide S/SW filament eruption seen in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is filament eruption spanning from S30W10 to S10W40. Liftoff seen starting at 2023-11-27T05:20Z in SDO AIA 304. Filamentary material seen leaving the surface, and post-eruptive brightening also seen in SDO AIA 304 and GOES SUVI 304 imagery. Moving field lines off the SW limb seen in SDO AIA 171 at 05:45Z. Dimming and ejecta seen in SDO AIA 193 starting at 05:30Z. There is no clear evidence of a CME arrival in real time solar wind timelines at L1. There is however a slight chance that this CME combined with two later, more prominent, CMEs: 2023-11-27T20:12:00-CME-001 and 2023-11-27T23:48:00-CME-001but for the later combined arrival at 2023-11-30T23:29Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-11-30T05:54Z (-10.14h, +11.83h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2023/11/27 06:40Z
Plane of Sky 1: 16:20Z; 31.5Rsun; SSW Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 00:20Z; 31.5Rsun; NNE Direction
POS Difference: 8:00
POS Midpoint: 20:20Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 13:40

Numeric View/Impact Type: 3
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~5.21
Travel Time: ~5.21 * 13:40 = 71:14

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2023-11-30T05:54Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time: 5%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5

Lead Time: 52.07 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2023-11-28T01:50Z

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